• UNITS: Standardized wager size based on a percentage of a total bankroll. Using units allows for a disciplined, consistent approach to betting and a clear way to track performance over time.
• YIELD: Measure of efficiency that shows the actual profit generated for every dollar wagered. It's a powerful indicator of a strategy's long-term profitability, beyond just win-loss record.
• KELLY CRITERION: Mathematical strategy for determining wager size. It uses the model's perceived edge to suggest a bet that aims to maximize long-term bankroll growth while managing risk.
• SHARPE RATIO: Evaluates an investment's return compared to its risk. It helps us ensure our betting strategy is not only profitable but also stable and intelligent.
• LOG LOSS: Scores our model based on both the accuracy and the confidence of its predictions. This ensures our highest-rated picks are backed by strong certainty.
• BRIER SCORE: Verifies that our model's probability scores are reliable. It measures how well our predicted chances (e.g., 70%) align with how often those outcomes actually happen.
• AUC (AREA UNDER CURVE): Evaluates a model's ability to distinguish between different outcomes. A high AUC score indicates the model has a strong, reliable instinct for separating winning bets from losing ones.
• F1 / F2 SCORE: These scores measure the balance between two types of errors: recommending a bad bet (a false positive) and missing a good one (a false negative). The F1 score seeks an even balance between the two, while the F2 score places more importance on not missing opportunities.